Data State: As Khamenei Shifts Tone, Iran Digs In for a Long Struggle
Still reeling from recent Israeli and U.S. strikes that damaged its nuclear infrastructure and killed top commanders, the Islamic Republic is in a precarious moment.
Bruised, humiliated and on edge, Tehran is moving quickly to control the narrative, tighten its internal grip and shift into a war-ready, security-first posture. It is preparing for a prolonged confrontation, banking on national endurance, heightened patriotism and a survival strategy rooted in force.
As the stakes rise, so does the uncertainty. What’s happening inside Iran is getting harder to see.
At Data State — a weekly briefing from Iran Open Data (IOD) — we cut through the fog. We follow the numbers, not the noise, bringing data-driven analysis and grounded insight into what’s unfolding behind the headlines.
In this issue:
Khamenei’s rhetoric shifts after Israeli strike
Iran triples use of dirty fuel oil
Bushehr nuclear plant: big cost, limited return
Khamenei’s rhetoric shifts after Israeli strike
The whereabouts of Iran’s supreme leader - the world’s sixth longest-serving authoritarian ruler - remain unclear. But one thing is certain: the ayatollah’s tone has changed since the June 13 Israeli strikes.
In the months leading up to the Israeli strike, Khamenei’s speeches were dominated by words like “work,” “God,” “government,” “system,” and personal references such as “I” and “myself”—a reflection of his theocratic and personalized leadership style.
But in two video messages released after the attack—and before a ceasefire was reached—his language changed sharply. The focus shifted toward national unity, with terms like “Iran” and “people” moving to the forefront.
Bushehr nuclear plant: big cost, limited return
Two decades. Billions of dollars. One struggling reactor.
Iran’s flagship civilian nuclear plant in Bushehr continues to run far below capacity. We break down what went wrong — and what that reveals about Iran’s broader energy strategy.
Iran triples use of dirty fuel oil
Iran’s domestic consumption of mazut — a highly polluting fuel oil — has more than tripled since 2018, according to a confidential Oil Ministry report obtained by Iran Open Data.
Driving the spike: failing power plants, chronic gas shortages and worsening economic conditions.
Final thoughts
The clerics in Tehran now speak of unity, resilience and shared sacrifice like never before. Whether the public will be swayed — and whether the Islamic Republic — long practiced at surviving and even thriving in chaos — can weather its biggest test since the Iran-Iraq War of 1980s — remains to be seen.
At IOD, we’ll keep cutting through the smoke — one dataset at a time.